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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates

We expect 4.1% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q14, the product of 2.6% growth in demand intensity and 1.5% growth in price. Following the BEA’s nearly unprecedented downward...

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CORRECTION: GILD v. ABBV: An In-Depth Review of Global Sales Prospects for...

We believe consensus estimates for global HCV sales are reasonable; however we believe the share of consensus allocated to GILD’s regimens (77%) is a best-case scenario; and that the share of global...

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of...

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug &...

Using patent data, we estimate the relative ‘true economic’ value of companies’ pre-phase III (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), and then compare these estimates to the apparent market capitalization of these...

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ABBV (and ENTA): The Corvette(s) to GILD’s Ferrari

We believe consensus incorrectly views GILD’s pending hepatitis C (HCV) regimen as having consistently greater efficacy than ABBV’s pending regimen; in this note we compare pivotal trial results for...

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GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to...

GILD’s decision to authorize HCV generics in 91 lower income countries arguably reflects multiple considerations, including that generics were likely to soon appear in these countries with or without...

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Healthcare & the Midterm Elections: Everything You Need to Know

Republicans almost certainly will maintain control of the House, and have roughly 60% odds of gaining Senate control – 70% if independent Maine Senator Angus King agrees to caucus with Republicans....

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WAG/RAD: Pressure on generic dispensing margins likely to be much more...

WAG & RAD both recently lowered guidance; both blame falling generic dispensing margins. In each case the companies point to pressures on both sides of the margin equation – rising generic...

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of...

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What Healthcare Stocks’ Share Prices Imply about Future Growth, and How this...

Hospitals are benefiting from rising patient flows and reduced costs for uncompensated care; however as insured patients move to cheaper forms of coverage they owe larger percentages of hospital bills,...

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SCOTUS Round II: Does King Really Matter?

The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will hear arguments in King v. Burwell, in February or March of 2015, with a ruling likely in June of 2015. A decision to uphold King would mean persons...

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Hold-Out States Will Expand Medicaid – Just Ask History

The original Medicaid program was passed in ’65, going into effect in ’66 – and only 26 states joined the program in that first year. By 1970 all but Alaska and Arizona had joined; Alaska held out...

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug &...

We use patent data to estimate the amount and quality of innovation in companies’ pre-phase III (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines); we then determine whether companies’ share prices accurately reflect what’s in...

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The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise

2017 consensus for SNY’s US basal insulins fell from $9.9B to $7.5B after the company warned 2015 sales growth would be flat, citing price competition. We believe estimates have fallen too far, and...

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of...

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R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools &...

Returns to R&D spending are below costs of capital and deteriorating further; despite this the average large pharmaceutical company has increased R&D:sales ratios over the last decade. This...

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Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings

The 2014 – ’15 flu season is slightly worse than 2013 – ’14 overall; we estimate flu-related hospital spending will be up roughly 30% Notably, most of the additional hospitalizations are occurring...

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The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s

US net pricing gains explain more than 100 percent of US revenue growth for the large-caps as a whole; making net price growth crucial not only to future growth but also to dividends, a signal feature...

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The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise – Update

Consensus expectations for SNY’s basal insulins (Lantus/Toujeo) appear too low. Expectations fell 28% after SNY warned last October that US pricing had weakened, and have fallen to the point that...

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Why ABBV is Still a Value

GILD’s disclosure of an expected 46% average Harvoni discount for 2015 reduces our net pricing expectations for ABBV’s Viekira Pak to roughly $42,000 per regimen, down from roughly $60,000 Despite...

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